Geostat has revised its rapid estimate of real GDP growth for the fourth quarter of 2017. Estimated growth now stands at 5.4%, which is 0.7 percentage points above the previously estimated average growth rate for Q4. As a result, the real GDP growth for 2017 reached 5.0%.

Among the pleasant surprises early this year, were the figures for Georgia’s economic growth in 2017. According to GeoStat estimates, Georgia’s real GDP grew by 4.8% year over year (YoY) in 2017. This result moderately surpassed the ADB, EBRD, IMF, and World Bank’s last growth projections of 4.2%, 3.9% 4.0%, and 3.5% growth, respectively. NBG's 4.5% growth projection also slightly underestimated Georgia’s economic growth in 2017. The real winner in this race was ISET-PI’s annual GDP growth forecast.

Georgia’s real GDP growth rate in Q3 reached 4.4% year-on-year, putting the country on the path to achieving 4.7% annual growth in 2017. Export, tourism and money transfer trends were behind the strong showing in Quarter 3. Supply side pressures will keep inflation above the 4% target in 2017.

According to the preliminary statistics released by GeoStat, Georgia’s real GDP growth was 4% year over year (YoY) in Q2 2017, which fell short of the 5.8% that had been expected by the ISET-PI GDP forecast made in July. This shortfall was driven not by weak performance, but overly optimistic predictions of ISET-PI’s empirical model, influenced by high actual growth in the first quarter (5.1% YoY).

Geostat has recently released its rapid estimate of economic growth for the second quarter of 2017, which now stands at 4%. As a result, estimated real GDP growth for the first half of 2017 reached 4.5%. The ISET-PI real GDP growth forecast for the third quarter of 2017 was revised downward to 5.3%.